One of my Carlisle landlords contacted me last week from Rickerby, after he had spoken to a landlord friend of his from Dalston. He told me they were deliberating the Carlisle property market and neither of them could make their mind up if it was time to either sell or buy property following Covid-19. His friend said he would wait to see what would happen to property prices following Covid-19, yet my landlord wanted to pick my brain in order to help him decide what to do.
I said the press are aware that bad news sells newspapers and the doom mongers are plying their trade on uncertainty in the world economic situation. Roll the clock back to the Credit Crunch of 2008/9, and there were quite a few landlords in Carlisle who had overexposed themselves with high percentage loan to value buy to let mortgages, backing the hope they would make their money on the capital growth, yet fell foul of a drop in rents and thus got bankrupted (but who could blame them when the property market was rising at 15% to 20% a year in the early 2000’s and banks like Northern Rock were giving mortgages out to anyone with a pulse and note from their Mum).
Thankfully the Bank of England changed the rules on all mortgages in 2014 banning self-certification mortgages, tightening the rules around interest-only mortgages and the requirement around affordability to be checked plus a tough stress test if interest rates rose. It’s obvious we are going to enter into a recession because of Covid-19, yet this time the Carlisle property market is better placed to weather the storm.
However, gone are the days when you could buy any old house in Carlisle and it would make money. Yes, in the past, anything in Carlisle that had four walls and a roof would make you money because since World War 2, property prices doubled every seven years … it was like having a free cash machine.
If a landlord bought a Carlisle terraced/town house in the summer of 2000, he or she would have seen a profit of £60,800 to its current value of £103,600, a rise of 141.9%
Nonetheless, if that landlord had bought the same property in 2010, the Carlisle landlord would have only made £7,000 profit (a 7.3% increase). Yet since 2010, the country has experienced 31.5% inflation, meaning our Carlisle landlord has seen the ‘real’ value of their Carlisle property decrease by 24.2% (i.e. 7.3% less 31.5% inflation).
And this is my point. Nobody has been complaining about the property market in the last ten years, yet landlords are still worse off in real terms. If we do see a slight dip in property prices because of Covid-19 (looking at the market at the moment I haven’t seen any indication of its slowing down from its post lockdown takeoff), but if we do, Carlisle landlords need to realise property values aren’t the only indicator of whether the property market is good or not.
The reality is, since around the early 2000’s we haven’t seen anything like the capital growth in property we have seen in the past and it’s not predicted to grow at the rates it has previously done either. So, I believe it is high time for any Carlisle landlord pondering investing in Carlisle property to stop believing the hype and do some serious research using independent investment expertise. You can still make money by buying the right Carlisle property at the right price and finding the right tenant.
Think about it, properties in real terms are 24.2% lower than a decade ago, so investing in Carlisle property is not only about capital growth, but also about the yield (the return from the rent). It’s also about having a balanced property portfolio that will match what you want from your investment – and what is a ‘balanced property portfolio’? Well we discuss such matters on the Carlisle Property Blog … if you haven’t seen the articles, then it might be worth a few minutes of your time?
The British are infatuated with owning their own property and politicians know that. Margaret Thatcher used it as a vote winner in 1979 when she allowed council house tenants to buy their own home. Coming to the present day, Boris Johnson’s Conservative government have anxieties that the Brits have not been buying nearly enough homes lately and, as with all countries in the world, the British property market was put ‘on ice’ for several months to help contain the Coronavirus, exacerbating the problem.
The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, announced on Wednesday plans to boost the property market by momentarily scrapping Stamp Duty Tax (a tax paid by homebuyers) when they buy a property that costs less than £500,000.
Interestingly, Stamp Duty was originally introduced in 1694 as a way to raise funds for The Nine Years’ War (1688–1697) against Louis XIV of France and applied to property and some legal documents.
Why is this important? Well the Government recognise that when the property market is working well, the economy also tends to work well, yet one of the barriers to people moving home is Stamp Duty. Even before Coronavirus, Brits were moving 40.21% less than they were at the start of the millennium, and now with this dreadful situation, the natural reaction is for people to stay put in their own homes, meaning another potential nail in the coffin for the economy.
Stamp Duty has raised not an insignificant £166.53bn since 1998, impressive when you consider the NHS costs £129bn per annum. Looking at more recent figures, the Government currently raise £1.045bn per month from Stamp Duty Tax and this statement will remove a good chunk of that from the Chancellors coffers each month, yet the Government knows a healthy property market will help the wider economy.
As Stamp Duty is a transaction tax, it restricts labour market mobility, making people who are thinking of switching jobs think twice before moving. Stamp Duty also holds back elderly homeowners from downsizing to smaller homes, which is an issue for the UK, as we don’t have enough homes to meet supply and also curtails first time buyers as it forces them to use some of the savings on the tax, as opposed to using for a deposit.
Before the changes, the Stamp Duty thresholds were as follows:
- Zero percent up to £125,000
- Two percent of the next £125,000 (the portion from £125,001 to £250,000)
- Five percent of the next £675,000 (the portion from £250,001 to £925,000)
- Ten percent of the next £575,000 (the portion from £925,001 to £1.5 million)
- 12% of the remaining amount (the portion above £1.5 million)
and between the 8th July 2020 and 31st March 2021
- Zero percent up to £500,000
- Five percent of the next £425,000 (the portion from £500,001 to £925,000)
- Ten percent of the next £575,000 (the portion from £925,001 to £1.5 million)
- 12% of the remaining amount (the portion above £1.5 million)
Landlords and buy to let landlords will also benefit from these reduced rates yet will still have to pay their additional premium for second homes (as they have since April 2016).
To give you an idea how significant this is, if these rules had been in place exactly a year ago for Carlisle properties purchased under £500,000 (i.e. between the 8th July 2019 and 31st March 2020).
Stamp Duty would not have been paid on 672 Carlisle properties, worth in total £139,352,900
Anyone buying any home in Carlisle over £500,000 are also winners in this, as they will save having to pay the first £15,000 in stamp duty (under the old scheme). This is because during these 9 months, stamp duty is only paid on the difference over £500,000 (so if you buy a property for say £620,000 – one only pays the stamp duty on the difference between £620,000 and £500,000 i.e. £120,000).
I’m all for reducing Stamp Duty, which is imposed progressively at higher rates the higher a property costs (as you can see from the tables above). Yet, short-lived changes to property taxation risk warping the property market and generating a ‘property market hangover’ in Spring 2021. I am part of a group of 2,500 estate and letting agents from the UK, and most of us were running at 150% speed before this announcement, coping with the post Coronavirus explosion in demand.
Now it seems that the ‘feast’ will continue until the end of March 2021 as many more people will move to take advantage of the cut in tax. However, some are suggesting this could lead to ‘famine’ down the line as it will stop people moving into the late spring and summer of 2021.
History tells us different stories on the influence on transaction volumes from changing Stamp Duty rates. In 1991 the Tory’s raised the Stamp Duty threshold at which house buyers started paying and Gordon Brown did so in 2008 when we went into the Credit Crunch. More recently, both George Osborne and Philip Hammond fine-tuned Stamp Duty so that landlords had to pay an additional Stamp Duty Premium after March 2016 whilst first-time buyers pay less Stamp Duty and the purchasers of more expensive homes (over £1.5m) pay more.
The Stamp Duty changes for landlords in 2016 affected the property market only for a short while and by the autumn, transactions levels had returned to normal. However, in 1991, John Major’s Stamp Duty change encouraged home buyers to bring forward home purchases but nevertheless the property market ground to a standstill again once the benefit ended (although the steps up the 1990’s Stamp Duty levels were much harsher as the tax applied to the whole purchase price, not the margin steps as it had in the 1990’s).
So how much money will Carlisle people save when buying a home under £500k?
The average Stamp Duty paid by those Carlisle home buyers in the 9 months between the 8th July 2019 and 31st March 2020 was £1,647
Being objective, I can see why the Chancellor could see this as a suitable way to motivate spending because when people move home, they are more inclined to spend comprehensively on property renovations and the services of solicitors, home removal people, tradesmen and estate agents. So, drastically reducing Stamp Duty will undoubtedly help the UK economy, or at least contain some of the damage from the Coronavirus.
Also, the experience of being in lockdown will have confirmed to many Carlisle people that they need a bigger home or one with a bigger garden. I also suspect other people may be able to work from home on a more long-lasting basis, meaning there could be a shift from the larger cities to outlying towns and even a move to the countryside.
So, these are my thoughts, what are yours?
What have we learned in the first month?
From talking to most of the Carlisle estate and letting agents and our own findings, it might surprise many of you that new enquiries from homebuyers, tenants, landlords and home sellers have been at record levels since lockdown was lifted from the property market in mid-May.
There are a number of reasons for this. Firstly, we had the pent-up demand for Carlisle property from the Boris Bounce in January and February. Next, many Carlisle people were planning to move this spring yet were prevented doing so because of lockdown, and finally, surprisingly, an advance wave of home movers seeking to bring their Carlisle moving plans forward because of a fear of a second Covid-19 wave later in the year.
So, what does all that look like and how does it compare to the last 12/18 months?
Data from Yomdel, the live chat and telephone answering service for a quarter of UK estate and letting agents, is able to track objective and more current information from across the UK on what is really happening. Each week, they are dealing with thousands of enquiries including:
- Seller enquiries (i.e. house sellers looking to put their property on the market)
- Buyer enquiries (i.e. people looking to view a property on the market with the intention of buying it)
- Landlords enquiries (i.e. landlords looking for tenants for their rental property)
- Tenant enquiries (i.e. people looking to view a property on the market with the intention of renting it)
They have created a rolling weekly average of those enquiries for the whole of the UK for the 62 weeks before the country went into lockdown. Then they compared that 62 week average with specific time frames, namely the 10 weeks of the run up to the General Election, the 8 weeks of Post Boris Bounce in January and February 2020, the weeks of lockdown in March, April and early May and then finally, from mid-May, the post lockdown.
You might ask why tracking estate and letting agency enquiries is so important?
Enquiries in letting and estate agencies are the beating heart of the property market – they are the ECG machine of the estate and letting agency. Of course, house price data has its place and is lauded by the national press as the bellwether of the property market, yet it takes 6 to 9 months for the effects of what is happening today to show in those house price indexes, whilst these enquiries are what is happening now.
Have a look at the data in the graph and table, it can be seen in the 8 weeks up to the General Election, every metric was down. Next, the post Boris Bounce saw house seller and house buyer leads increase yet note how low tenant enquiries were (hardly any change from the run up to the election), everything dipped during lockdown as expected, yet look at all the metrics post lockdown … amazing! (e.g. if a number in the graph/table below is say -25%, that means its 25% below the rolling 62 week average, yet if it were +20%, then that would mean it would be 20% more than the rolling 62 week average).
The numbers speak for themselves!
So, what is happening in the Carlisle property market? Well, there is plenty of activity in the Carlisle property market, yet that doesn’t mean everything is back to normal. Enquiries are an important metric, yet another way to judge the health of the property market is to look at the number of property transactions (i.e. people moving).
Now the Land Registry data isn’t quite as exhilarating, yet it is less volatile. Nationally, it shows that property transactions were at their lowest level since its records began in April 2005. The seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential property transactions in April and May 2020 was 90,210, 53.4% lower than the 193,500 transactions of April and May 2019. Again though, this was because of the restrictions on moving during Covid-19. The stats for Carlisle are still to be released, yet rest assured I will share them in due course.
Looking again at what is happening now, when I look at the number of properties for sale…
161 Carlisle properties have come onto the property market in the last 14 days alone, and of those, 12 are already sold subject to contract
So, what of the future of the post-lockdown Carlisle housing market? While a stern recession seems almost guaranteed, a housing market crash is not. Many newspapers are predicting property values to fall in 2020, then rise reticently from the ashes in 2021. The fact is, nobody knows. The property market is driven a lot by sentiment. Buying a home is not like buying stocks and shares – it’s a home to live in … and those Carlisle landlords who are looking for an investment opportunity, often let their heart rule the head (again sentiment) when investing in property.
Property always has, and always will be, a long-term investment. Many of you Carlisle people reading this, especially potential Carlisle first time buyers, have been putting off buying your first home because of Brexit, now its Covid-19, and in a few years, it will be something else. There will always be ‘something else’… and you could get to your 50’s and 60’s, still renting, waiting for the ‘next thing’ to pass before you buy … and end up buying nothing.
Nobody knows what the months or years ahead will bring … yet what I do know is, people will always need a place to live. Please let me know your thoughts in the comments. Tell us what your experiences are as a Carlisle landlord or homeowner, tenant or buyer so we can all learn from each other.
…. and should Carlisle landlords & Carlisle homeowners be worried?
In 2019, the private rented sector accounted for just over four and a half million households or 19.9% of UK households, no change from the year before. Interesting, when compared to the proportion of private rented households in the 1980’s and 1990’s, when the proportion of private rented households was stable at around 9.5% to 10.8%.
Most of that growth in the private rented sector came in three main spurts. The first growth spurt was between 1999 and 2003 and that was caused when property values were increasing at 20% per annum, the second came from the migration of 1.69m people from the EU8 countries after 2004 and the final growth spurt came about because of the property crash of 2008/9. When I look at the local stats …
8.4% of Carlisle properties in 1991 were privately rented, whilst the most recent stats, stand at 15.1%
Apart from social housing, the other pillar of home tenure is owner occupation. Owner occupation is made up of two separate groups: outright owners and those who own their home yet are buying the property with a mortgage.
In 1991, 24.2% of Carlisle households owned their property outright and 43.0% of Carlisle households were buying with a mortgage, whilst current stats show 30.2% of Carlisle households are outright owners and only 34.4% are buying their Carlisle home with a mortgage
Looking at these numbers, two things are clear-
- The increase in the proportion and number of Carlisle outright owners is at least somewhat caused by Carlisle’s baby-boomer population retiring, being able to pay off their mortgages and thus going into outright homeownership.
- Overall homeownership is down. These figures will be of no surprise to many readers with heightened barriers to home ownership, as saving for the deposit became the prevailing hurdle to getting on the housing ladder together with a substantial increase in the amount of private rented accommodation, provided by an ostensibly ever-growing cohort of buy-to-let investors.
So, on the face of it, everything looks rosy for Carlisle buy to let landlords with the private rented sector growing ever upwards.
This is not the case though because these stats on private rented and homeownership on Carlisle are from the last census. However, the Government have a number of in-depth annual surveys on the property market and since 2016, the proportion of privately rented properties has remained stagnant at between 19% and 20%. Also, over the same time frame, the proportion of homebuyers with a mortgage has increased quite considerably from 30.7% of all households nationally to 35.5% last year. This increase is mainly attributed to an increase in first time buyers.
So, why have we seen an increase in the number of first time buyers?
Firstly, the government introduced their Help to Buy Scheme in 2013 helping first time buyers get on the property ladder with interest free loans and mortgage guarantees. Secondly, the wide availability of 95% mortgages since the mid 2010’s (meaning first time buyers only need to find a 5% deposit), and finally the continued increasing reliance of deposits from the ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ have helped to support this growth.
Interestingly, age is an important factor in these stats, as it’s the 25 to 35-year olds that have seen the biggest increase in home ownership, yet it’s decreased for those in the 35 to 45-year old bracket.
So, what does all this mean for Carlisle landlords and Carlisle homeowners?
In the next six months, I believe the growth in first time buyer numbers will ease slightly. The pent-up demand of the Boris Bounce in January and February has now been released, and whilst the early signs are very good, we are still to see the effects of the curtailing of the furlough scheme on the people’s ability to move home.
Many doom-mongers were predicting the banks would remove 95% mortgages after Covid-19, yet looking on a well-known comparison website, at the time of writing, there were 183 ‘95% mortgages’ available to first time buyers, with eye watering low rates of 1.53% with the Halifax on a 2 year fixed rate and 5 year fixed rate with the Skipton at 1.83%. The Bank of Mum and Dad might be a tougher nut to crack for first time buyers’ deposits – the fall in the FTSE and the repercussions this will have on older households’ pensions income may restrict its availability.
This means even though the Carlisle property market is doing reasonably well, Carlisle homeowners wanting to sell shouldn’t get carried away and ‘over-egg’ their asking prices. The information available today at all buyers’ fingertips means your property can so easily be overlooked as being overpriced and thus become ignored.
My advice to Carlisle landlords is, even though the proportion of private rented properties isn’t growing, in real numbers it is, as we created 230,000 residential homes in the country last year alone, so we aren’t seeing a mass exodus out of private renting.
Yet, now might be the time to consider spending money on upgrading what you already own instead of buying another property. Depending on the type and location of your Carlisle rental property, the return on investment of certain upgrades can be in the order of 20% to 30% per annum. Don’t fall for the trap many Carlisle landlords fall into and upgrade without speaking to a property professional. Whether you are a client or not, I am always here at the end of the phone to give you my advice and opinion.
Please do let me have your thoughts on the matter – thank you in advance.
Isn’t it funny that nobody boasts they are a buy to let landlord anymore? Roll the clock back to the early millennium and you couldn’t go to the local golf club or shop at a Tesco without someone dropping buy to let into the conversation as easily and as often as the weather.
Yet now, Carlisle buy to let landlords have almost pariah status, as they place a brown paper bag over their head when they enter a letting agency, lest they be recognised as such. They can easily be recognised though, as the average age of a UK tenant in a property is 32 years old, whilst the average age of a UK landlord is between 40 and 61 years old.
Joking aside, if it wasn’t for buy to let landlords – Carlisle and the UK would be in a rather difficult position when it comes to housing our local people. Many people believe that if you take buy to let landlords out of the loop of the UK property network, then it would be the land of milk and honey for first-time buyers priced out of the market. Those Carlisle landlords provide those Carlisle tenants with a mixture of homes to live in and using market forces, ensure the right number of Carlisle homes are available. In fact, the stats show that…
Carlisle buy to let landlords provide 5,199 Carlisle homes for 10,761 Carlisle tenants
Yet the retort from many tenant organisations would be that Carlisle landlords are wealthy middle-class people, voraciously exploiting the failing Carlisle property market for their profit and greed. Of course, the demographic of an average Carlisle landlord is they tend to come from more fortunate backgrounds, with 3 in 4 of Carlisle landlords aged between their late 40’s to late 60’s and 4 in 10 having a degree level qualification.
It also wouldn’t surprise anyone to learn that those who invest in a buy to let Carlisle property are likely to be better off than those who have not yet been able to buy a home. Yet, that is the nature of the country we live in and it’s a consequence of a competitive free market economy (the alternative didn’t go to well in the Soviet bloc). Indeed, asserting that the buy to let landlords represent a transfer of wealth and money from tenants to landlords is like saying that the pub represents a transfer of wealth from drinkers to the pub landlord.
Don’t get me wrong, the tax loopholes for landlords up until 3 or 4 years ago were a little ‘too’ generous, still these were closed by the Tory’s themselves. However, should the Government try to place even more burden on landlords like some are suggesting, forcing them to sell, I am certain some Carlisle first time buyers would find it cheaper to buy their first Carlisle home. This is because they wouldn’t be in competition with Carlisle landlords to buy the starter homes both types of buyers crave, meaning house prices would drop (simple economics would dictate that).
Yet, if the supply of Carlisle privately rented homes contracted at a greater rate (because landlords were selling up) than demand, this would make renting more expensive (again simple economics) for the vast majority of Carlisle tenants who were still renting a Carlisle home. Irrespective of whether property values dropped, it might take years for a tenant to save for a deposit, whilst the rental properties the landlords want to sell, the tenants only need to be given two months’ notice to leave so the property can be put on the market.
One might ask why don’t the local authorities build more council houses?
Well, Government funding has been tight because of the credit crunch deficit since 2009 and going forward because of the current situation with Covid-19, it will get even worse. In fact, of the 617,230 new homes built in the country over the last 4 years, only 8,270 or 1.33% were built by local authorities, meaning only just over 1 in 100 of all new properties built in the last 4 years were built by the local authorities.
This is important as the number of people in rented property has been growing over the last 20 years. In fact, when you look at all the tenants in council and private rented accommodation locally…
30.7% of Carlisle people live in a rented property
Interestingly, the demographic of a council house tenant is totally different to that of a tenant in a private rented home. The average age of a council house tenant is 52 years old (compared to 32 years for a private rented tenant), so it appears the older generation have the upper hand on council houses. So again, who exactly is going to house the people of Carlisle, especially the younger generation that can’t afford to buy?
Local authorities haven’t got the money, Housing associations get their money from central Government, so the only other source of housing is private landlords. The problem existed before private landlords filled the gap. No doubt many Carlisle landlords have certainly gained from the problem, especially between 2000 and 2007, yet at the same time, they have helped home millions of people.
Consequently, are Carlisle landlords greedy and selfish? For most law abiding Carlisle landlords, who look after their tenants and their properties really well, nothing could be further from the truth… and yes they have made some money – yet if you take into account property maintenance, mortgage finance, taxation, agent fees, surveys and inspections – it’s really not the gold mine many think it is.
Not until all the political parties stop using the housing issue as a political football will this issue be sorted. For example, it makes sense to allow mass building in the South East, again driving up supply and making property more affordable, yet that would wind up the Tory voting home county heartlands. It’s a shame because we do have the room to build more homes, in fact…
Only 1.2% of the country has houses built on it
The country needs a massive root and branch change to sort things out, yet I have grave misgivings that any politician has the stomach or the political resolve to do anything about it.
If Covid-19 does affect the confidence in the property market, that will be in fact good news for Carlisle landlords, as long as the Government doesn’t put its big ‘size 9’s into the rental market by taking even more money out landlord’s pockets.
Historically, ambiguity in the property market typically results in an expansion in activity in the private rental market. Prospective home movers will rent in between selling their home and buying the next one, while budding first time buyers typically postpone their purchase and stay in the private rental market for marginally longer … which all increases demand for rental property.
Despite Government regulations that have been in place since the 26 March 2020, when in-person viewings were made illegal, Carlisle buy to let landlords have during that time been chomping at the bit to build their property empire by looking at buying additional properties for their Carlisle buy to let portfolio.
There are plenty of investors who think nothing of legally committing to buying a property ‘off plan’ before it’s built – yet over the last few weeks, it has become the norm in the second-hand Carlisle property market and they have now stolen a march and bagged some property bargains.
Normally, the face-to-face viewing is step one of the second-hand house buying process .. yet now it’s becoming the ‘new normal’ that some Carlisle agents are carrying out semi-professional video viewings or 360-degree video tours. Even homeowners are getting in on the act and managing a Facetime or Zoom video viewing by walking around their house with their mobile phone.
Yet the Government announced on Wednesday, 13th May 2020 that the Estate & Letting Agency industry could reopen meaning people could view houses, visit agents (by appointment only) and move home be they tenants, buyers, landlords or home-sellers. This is all subject to general and specific social distancing rules, specific hygiene regulations and suitable PPE being used.
What has been happening in the last few weeks in the Carlisle property market?
The average time between sale agreed and exchange/completion of contracts on a house sale (i.e. the keys and monies get sorted) is 17 to 19 weeks, which means buying today would mean you wouldn’t be getting your hands on the property until late September or October at the earliest.
Spring is the time when most properties come onto the market, yet as one would expect, the number of Carlisle properties coming onto the market has been somewhat reduced since lockdown as ..
Only 35 Carlisle properties have been put up for sale in the last month
This reduction in supply of new properties coming onto the market combined with this pent-up demand from both Carlisle landlords and the ‘Boris-Bounce’ could in fact be good news for the Carlisle property market, let me explain…
Rightmove stated that people going to their website initially dropped by 40% at the start of lockdown, yet now has recovered, with a near doubling of people searching for properties with gardens (for both sales and renting). For many Carlisle buy to let landlords (and in fact Carlisle homebuyers) now is the very best time to do research into the Carlisle property market. All the portals have access to 25 years of property sales with pictures, so you can compare and contrast what has happened to various different property types around Carlisle to spot those under-priced bargains, meaning you can get moving quickly after lockdown.
Rather than feeling trapped or powerless, this time can be used fruitfully by Carlisle buyers and Carlisle sellers to get their ducks in a row
One of the biggest barriers in April was mortgage lending. In the early days of the pandemic, most mortgage lenders removed many of their best deals and enormously restricted their capacity. Currently, though, we are seeing a revitalisation in the mortgage market. In May, with many mortgage products becoming accessible again for borrowers, and with many mortgage companies integrating more digital processes (including Virtual Surveyor Mortgage Valuations in some cases) the mortgage market now has plenty of options available to those who are keen to obtain borrowing.
There is no doubt the Carlisle housing market got off to a sturdy start in 2020. With Brexit at least partly resolved, the ‘Boris-Bounce’ was starting to take off. With Carlisle house prices being robust and rental demand was high, the Carlisle property market was already in a good place to deal with the subsequent Covid-19 issue.
I know there are a few doom mongers in the National Press spouting about a massive crash in the UK property market. There is a natural tendency for newspapers to latch onto the worst-case scenario in any economic forecast. Who can forget the country received similar projections in the lead-up to the 2016 Brexit vote with HMRC itself stating that UK house values would drop by at least 10% in the first 12 months should the UK vote for Brexit and 20% in two years!
With the rollercoaster of the stock market in recent months, investing one’s money into good old-fashioned bricks and mortar has started to seem a good place again.
Buying a property for investment means you have a tangible asset, something you can touch and feel (and understand). The returns from investing in property come from both capital appreciation and income from the rent, and yes whilst property values can go up as well as down, successful buy to let landlords are inclined to take a long-term view on their property investments.
£399 per month – The average gross profit from a Carlisle terraced/town house
To give you an example of the current buy to let returns, the average Carlisle terraced/town house sells for £103,200. By taking the ‘The Mortgage Works’ BTL 5-year fixed rate of 1.64%, with only £1,264 in up-front fees, a 20-year repayment mortgage would cost you £309 per month or interest only mortgage would only cost £86 per month .. considering the average rent for a terraced/town house in Carlisle is £485 per month .. even before management, tax, maintenance and other associated costs, that’s a decent gross profit (the £399 gross profit is an illustrative example using the interest only mortgage and the capital element would need repaying at the end of the term).
Isn’t it funny the newspapers aren’t latching on to some reports to say the property market might go in the other direction? Remember – bad news sells newspapers!
So, should you wait to buy your Carlisle buy to let investment?
Before you buy consider factors like the strength of your financial future, your credit score, the current state of the property market and even more importantly, the state of the mortgage market. Look at the current interest rates, they have never been so low and deliberate the experts’ opinions and just as equally your own opinions as to whether Carlisle property values are on the rise, will stay the same or are likely to fall.
Interest rates are at record lows, meaning borrowing money is cheap money now, so it may be a good time to buy, as you will pay a reduced cost for the pleasure of borrowing money to buy that investment. Yet, if you waited and Carlisle property values are on the decline, it may be a good idea to wait, as you could end up getting a better deal on the same type of home, yet if that happens, access to the cheap finance might dry up (meaning you could save some of the purchase price, but the cost of borrowing could go up). It can be very hard to accurately predict what interest rates or property values will do, so these shouldn’t be deciding factors – but they are worth considering.
So, what will happen to the Carlisle (and UK) property market?
To be honest – nobody knows. What I do know is the Swine Flu in 2009 caused some volatility in the UK property market, but the market stabilised within months. Even in disaster scenarios such as the current one, property remains comparatively stable and will continue to be one of the best places to invest in.
Yes, we could see unemployment rise in the next 6 months (yet the Furlough Scheme has been extended until the autumn) and historically, it has been proved house price falls are not caused by high unemployment; yes GDP will drop drastically because of lockdown yet it could bounce back like it has in China; yes, the number of property transactions will drop, yet that will only really effect the pockets of Carlisle removal people, Carlisle solicitors & estate agents and the Chancellor of the Exchequer in lost stamp duty receipts; yes there is £82bn worth of property sales on ice during this lockdown (some of which might not complete) .. it’s all ifs, buts and maybes.
Calamity changes things: with every predicament, humanity shifts to become more productive – it’s the way it’s always been
The national debt at the end of the Napoleonic Wars of 1815 in today’s money was an eye watering £4,421,000,000,000 (£4.42 trillion) and today even with the eye watering borrowing to fund Covid-19, it stands at £1,821.3 trillion – we have been here before and we came out stronger.
The Bank of England failed in 1825, yet we recovered stronger; the Great Depression of the 1930’s cut the Stock Market by 90%, yet we recovered; WW2 took national debt to 200% of GDP like it had in the Napoleonic Wars in the early 1800’s – yet we recovered; the oil crisis quadrupled oil prices in the 1970’s – and we came back …. The list goes on with Hyper-inflation in the 1970s of 25%, mass unemployment in the 1980’s, Black Monday in 1987, Dot-com bubble in 2001 and the credit crunch in 2008/9.
With every economic crisis, the long-term effects of them make people look at their decision making differently.
The simple fact is for decades, demand for homes has outstripped supply – hence why property values have remained so robust. People are living longer (71.1 years in 1960 and 81.1 years nowadays), the mass exodus of EU nationals has not taken place since Brexit and the birth rate has increased by 9.1% since the Millennium which means since 2000, the country has needed at least 240,000 households per year to satisfy the demand. On average, we have only built 150,000 households a year, meaning we have a shortfall of 90,000 households each year for 20 years .. a true shortfall of 1.8m households .. and until we start building anything over that 240,000 requirement … demand will always outstrip supply – and we all know what happens to prices when that happens!
Even though the new legislation was placed on hold because of the recent General Election and I have no doubts that it will be put on hold even longer with the effects of the Covid-19 lockdown and the ramifications it has had on our economy.
It was to be expected that the Government would start fining around half of all UK local authorities for failing to build enough new homes as Westminster wanted to force local authorities to build more homes with the new laws.
There is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the government and local authorities to kick start the economy after the end of the lockdown with an investment aimed at more building, hence more direct employment and growth in associated support businesses. To me, it’s a no brainer. I have sent this article to our local MP John Stevenson asking for his support and influence.
The Conservative Government has gone on record with an ambition to build 300,000 new homes each year from the mid-2020s (aspiring as the average for the last 13 years has only been 177,000 pa). So Downing Street see the planning system as requiring root and branch change to ensure local authorities deliver on that promise. The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government’s ‘Housing Delivery Test’, which should be launched on an undetermined date this year, will hold local authorities to account for ensuring they hit their own specific house building targets.
If a local authority is unable to show that it has a five-year stock of land for building new homes, it gives builders greater rights and liberties to build their new homes where the builder wants (not where the local authority wants).
This will mean there will be a house-building free-for-all
as the council will have less control over the setting, types of properties, contribution to infrastructure and location of any new home development.
Only 44% of local authorities have a local plan that is less than five years old.
Locally, Carlisle is in that 44% of local authorities, having had a local plan in place within the last five years.
Yet, the original question of this article was to find out if we are building enough homes in Carlisle and the surrounding local authority area i.e. should we get the builders in? Well, the Government set targets for local authorities for the number of homes they should build each year. The latest set of data is for 2018, so for the three years up to and including 2018 i.e. 2016/2017/2018,
Carlisle’s new home building target was 623 new homes, yet it achieved 1,548, a surplus of 925 new homes
So, what does that all mean for the Carlisle property market?
Even with the surplus, there are positive and negatives to this. The Carlisle property market is not broken, yet it does need to get the builders in. Irrespective of the results from the last three years, we have over three decades of under building, which has created issues regarding affordability of homeownership and older generations being stuck in homes too big because there aren’t enough suitable homes for them to move to, i.e. bungalows. The stabilisation of the General Election had a net positive to overall confidence in the local property market, meaning Carlisle homeowners and Carlisle landlords looking to sell their home in the coming spring and summer should have found decent demand (although sellers still need to realistic with their pricing). This was scuppered by the covid-19 outbreak with the housing market almost coming to a complete halt in Carlisle and nationally. I do think this halt will only be temporary until the lockdown is finished. I predict the Carlisle housing market will come back with a bang with many properties having been readied for sale with the surge in home improvements during the lock down. I also believe this time in confinement has given time for people to lay down plans for the future. This will include many house moves.
Unfortunately, the negatives are that many Carlisle renters that want to buy, are unable to as they can’t save after paying their rents and feel as if they’ve been left behind, or worse still, they have struggled to pay rents due to loss of employment of being furloughed.
I know the Government recently launched their “First Homes” scheme for selected first time buyers at the start of February, where a 30% discount would apply to “a proportion of new homes” and would be subsidised out of contributions from builders, the Tory’s have previously promised to build 200,000 cut price homes for first time buyers back in 2015, yet the National Audit Office has recently confirmed they never built a single one!
The simple fact is, we as a country need to build far more affordable homes in the areas where people want them. This means the dream of homeownership will be a greater possibility for our children and grandchildren in the future. Our local authority needs to continue to plan the housing needs (and associated infrastructure) to ensure that as we live longer and continue to grow as country – we have the homes in place to live in that are suitable for every generation.
So now we are only a matter of a couple of weeks into lockdown, yet can you believe it I am still speaking with agents from all over the UK, and I do not jest, properties are still being sold and let even in these unprecedented times. Yet I would like to address the question I have been asked many times recently “What will be the effect of Covid-19 on the Carlisle property market in the short, medium and long term?”
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Stay home and stay safe everyone.